New analysis highlights Morocco’s vulnerability to a potential oil price surge from the Iran-US crisis.

A comprehensive study examines the global fallout from the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, with a focus on tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The research explores geopolitical, economic, and security consequences worldwide, paying particular attention to Morocco, Africa, and countries of the Global South.

The analysis finds that the Hormuz crisis is far more than a regional dispute. It exposes the fragility of a globalized economy heavily reliant on energy, trade, and logistics flows passing through this strategic chokepoint, through which a significant share of oil, gas, fertilizers, and international commerce travels.

One chapter, written by an economist, models the effect of a 20% increase in oil prices on the economies of Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. Using an input-output economic model, the study concludes that Morocco appears as the most exposed country to the repercussions of an oil shock linked to the Hormuz crisis. Vulnerabilities appear in several sectors, notably agriculture, construction, transportation, and other energy-dependent activities.

In contrast, Egypt would partially benefit from higher prices thanks to state oil revenues, while Tunisia would show a broadly balanced outcome despite significant disparities between sectors.

Beyond economics, several contributors view the 2026 war as a turning point in the evolution of the international order. One analyst argues the conflict illustrates the growing fragmentation of the global system and the weakening of traditional cooperation and deterrence mechanisms. Another sees the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.

A further contribution examines the war’s impact on transatlantic relations, suggesting it deepened divisions between the United States and several European countries over the use of force and crisis management.

The study also highlights risks to African energy security, Sahel stability, and South American economies, while underscoring the growing role of strategic minerals in new global geopolitical dynamics.

This collective work aims to contribute to the debate on shifts in the international order and on strategies that states will need to adopt in the face of crises that could durably disrupt supply chains, energy markets, and global geopolitical balances.