After jointly driving the breakaway agenda of the Pastef party (African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity) in power since March 2024, Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko are now locked in a political tug-of-war that is reshaping institutional balances. The dismissal of Sonko from the prime ministership, followed by his return to the National Assembly and his election as head of the parliamentary institution, opens an unprecedented new chapter in Senegal.

This sequence pits a president with substantial constitutional prerogatives against a political leader who enjoys both his party’s overwhelming support and a solid parliamentary majority. In this analysis, political scientist Abdou Fattah Niane examines the levers available to each man and the factors likely to shape the evolving power dynamic.

What does the Diomaye-Sonko crisis reveal about the exercise of power in Senegal?

I believe it is indeed appropriate to speak of a crisis, especially since it involves the president of the republic and his former prime minister who is now president of the National Assembly.

The Diomaye-Sonko crisis exposes difficulties related to the exercise of power. Until now, the Senegalese model, except for the early years of independence (1960–1962), relied on a presidential-style regime with a dominant majority party, since the ruling party also held a majority in the National Assembly. Today, we are effectively witnessing a cohabitation.

However, it is a bit premature to draw definitive conclusions because events are still unfolding before our eyes, unless we limit ourselves to what the crisis has revealed so far, while knowing that further developments are inevitable. This phase tests the resilience of the Senegalese political system and its ability to overcome crises. Indeed, it is in such moments of crisis that this capacity and resilience are truly measured.

Like any political transition, this situation allows us to assess the solidity and adaptability of the Senegalese political system. Does it accommodate a genuine division of power at the top? Is it more receptive to a strong power that extends over both the executive and legislative branches, as has been the case since 1963? The future will tell. In any case, moderation in the exercise of power seems to me to be a protective mechanism for political stability.

Does the current crisis fit into the tradition of rivalries between presidents and prime ministers, or does it mark a break?

On a national scale, I believe it is rather a break. Since 1960, there has been only one crisis – one that threatened the stability of institutions – between President Léopold Sédar Senghor and his Prime Minister Mamadou Dia in 1962.

To understand this situation, some contextual elements need to be recalled. The president of the republic wields very significant constitutional powers. He defines the nation’s policy, which the prime minister must implement. However, during the election that brought Bassirou Diomaye Faye to power, Ousmane Sonko had chosen him as a candidate before giving him decisive support.

The current situation results from the encounter between two distinct sources of legitimacy. On one hand, the legal legitimacy of a president endowed with strong constitutional powers. On the other, the political legitimacy of a prime minister who controls the party apparatus and enjoys genuine grassroots support. To be convinced, one need only recall the results of the legislative elections of November 17, 2024. The next local elections, scheduled for January 2027, will act as a regulatory mechanism in an already contentious cohabitation process.

What respective power resources do Faye and Sonko rely on today?

Political parties seek to provide material benefits to their activists. Conversely, activists keep party organizations functioning. From this perspective, both politicians can draw on expertise while trying to consolidate electoral support.

Ousmane Sonko can lean on the Pastef-Les Patriotes party, which unanimously elected him presidency (589 voting delegates) at its congress on June 6, 2026. There is also the strong parliamentary majority (130 deputies out of 165) with very significant constitutional powers (oversight of government action, evaluation of public policies, motion of censure, etc.).

As for Bassirou Diomaye Faye, he holds the constitutional powers of the head of state, which are indeed important, but he needs the National Assembly to exercise some of his prerogatives. Nevertheless, he can rely on the power of the state. The presidential posture is also a mobilizable symbolic resource.

What factors will be decisive in the evolution of the power balance between the two camps?

The stakes are certainly high, but the political game is regulated at regular intervals by elections. These are, in principle, corrective and pacifying mechanisms. Therefore, a strong consensus on the electoral calendar, a demand for transparency in the electoral process, and moderation in the exercise of executive or legislative power are essential.

Popular perceptions of “Ousmane Sonko’s governance” and that of Bassirou Diomaye Faye will be decisive. The effectiveness of alternative public policies, the demand for moralization of public life, and citizens’ expectations regarding accountability and “justice for the martyrs” (those killed during political protests between 2021 and 2024) are all factors that will weigh on the evolving power balance between the two camps.

Elections and the party system are protective and regulatory mechanisms of democratic regimes. However, dysfunctions linked to a lack of transparency in electoral processes and an absence of moderation in the exercise of constitutional powers may lead the Senegalese population to resort to violent collective action.