AES states hold 7,727 billion CFA francs in outstanding public securities

As of 31 July 2026, the three member states of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — had a combined outstanding public securities balance of approximately 7,727 billion CFA francs on the regional financial market, according to data from UMOA-Titres, the body that organises the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) public securities market.

This figure raises questions about the narrative of financial sovereignty based entirely on domestic resources, a theme frequently emphasised by the three governments since their withdrawal from ECOWAS.

Country-by-country breakdown of the outstanding amounts

The data show that Burkina Faso accounted for the largest share, with an outstanding balance of 2,989.98 billion CFA francs. Mali followed with 2,606.93 billion CFA francs, while Niger stood at 2,130.47 billion CFA francs. Together, these amounts represent about 32.1% of the total outstanding public securities issued by all WAEMU member states, which reached 24,073.53 billion CFA francs at the same date.

It is important to clarify that these figures do not constitute a debt owed to WAEMU as an institution. They represent public securities still in circulation on the regional market — bonds and bills purchased by investors. The states borrow from these investors, and UMOA-Titres facilitates the market that connects them.

Burkina Faso: nearly 3,000 billion CFA francs outstanding

Burkina Faso’s outstanding balance of 2,989.98 billion CFA francs represents approximately 12.4% of the total WAEMU outstanding. The figure is notable not only for its size but also for its continued growth: the Burkinabè outstanding rose by 2.46% over the course of a single month.

During the first months of 2026, Ouagadougou kept tapping the regional market while simultaneously making repayments. In May alone, Burkina Faso raised 99.50 billion CFA francs through Treasury bonds and repaid 72.04 billion CFA francs. This pattern indicates that regional financing has not been abandoned despite the sovereignty discourse; it remains a key tool for treasury management and state financing.

Mali: over 2,600 billion CFA francs outstanding

Mali’s outstanding balance stood at 2,606.93 billion CFA francs as of 31 July 2026, accounting for about 10.8% of the regional total. This is not a one-off phenomenon. UMOA-Titres data show that by the end of May 2026, Mali’s outstanding had already reached 2,637.64 billion CFA francs. During that month, Bamako raised 93.50 billion CFA francs while repaying 110.07 billion CFA francs.

Mali thus continued to borrow and repay simultaneously, following a standard debt management approach. The critical question is not whether Bamako borrows, but at what pace, at what cost, and to finance which expenditures.

Niger: over 2,130 billion CFA francs outstanding

Niger’s outstanding balance reached 2,130.47 billion CFA francs as of 31 July 2026, representing roughly 8.9% of the total WAEMU outstanding. The evolution of this figure deserves particular attention.

Between April and May 2026, Niger’s outstanding jumped from 1,732.05 billion to 2,120.45 billion CFA francs — an increase of nearly 388.4 billion CFA francs in one month, according to UMOA-Titres data. This sharp rise was driven largely by significant financing and debt reprofiling operations.

In May 2026, Niger raised 567.49 billion CFA francs, including 519.51 billion in Treasury bonds and 47.97 billion in bills, while repaying 191.31 billion CFA francs. A few days earlier, a large-scale operation allowed Niger to handle 446.386 billion CFA francs in securities, of which about 59.710 billion CFA francs in short-term securities were bought back to ease immediate cash-flow pressures. Net resources generated were estimated at around 327 billion CFA francs.

The 7,727 billion CFA francs figure and its implications

Adding the three outstanding balances as of 31 July gives a total of 7,727.38 billion CFA francs. In other words, nearly 7,727 billion CFA francs in public securities from the three AES states remain in circulation on the regional market. For comparison, all WAEMU states together had an outstanding balance of 24,073.53 billion CFA francs at that time. The three AES countries alone thus accounted for about 32.1% of the entire regional outstanding.

Questioning the sovereignty narrative

This is where the real subject of inquiry lies. It would be inaccurate to claim that these three states are entirely dependent on the regional market. It would be equally inaccurate to assert that they have stopped using it. The data demonstrate, on the contrary, a strong and persistent reliance on the regional financial market.

The market is not merely an external mechanism imposed on states; it has long been a normal channel for financing national budgets within the West African monetary space. Yet a political and economic question remains: can a policy be presented as fully autonomous when several thousand billion CFA francs are raised from regional investors to finance state needs? Answering this requires looking beyond slogans.

The AES paradox

The paradox has become even more striking since Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger withdrew from ECOWAS. Politically, the three countries have asserted their intention to build an autonomous trajectory. Financially, however, they continue to use the WAEMU regional market — a market that relies largely on banks and investors from the West African space.

An analysis published in late 2025 noted a decline in the exposure of investors from other WAEMU countries to AES sovereign debt: their holdings fell from 3,174 billion to 2,801 billion CFA francs, a decrease of 373 billion CFA francs between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025. At the same time, cross-holdings of securities among the three AES countries dropped by 622 billion CFA francs, to around 3,160 billion CFA francs.

This trend warrants close monitoring: when investors become more cautious, financing can become more expensive and harder to secure.

The real indicator: the cost of debt

The size of the outstanding balance alone is not sufficient. To assess the sustainability of this debt, one must also examine interest rates, maturities, annual repayment amounts, domestic revenue mobilisation capacity, economic growth, the share allocated to security spending, and the ability to roll over maturing debt.

This is precisely where the risk lies. A state can carry a high outstanding balance in a controlled manner if it has sufficient revenue and solid growth. Conversely, a state can face serious difficulties with a smaller debt if a large portion of securities matures simultaneously or if interest rates become too high.

Niger offers a glimpse of the problem

The case of Niger perfectly illustrates this dynamic. In May 2026, the country raised 567.49 billion CFA francs but also repaid 191.31 billion CFA francs. Another operation involved 446.386 billion CFA francs, part of which was used to buy back maturing securities. This means that some of the new resources do not necessarily represent fresh money available to finance projects; they may serve to refinance existing debt.

This is a common mechanism in bond markets, but it must be stated clearly: raising several hundred billion does not automatically mean that those hundreds of billions add entirely to the resources available for development.

The trap of ‘billions mobilised’ announcements

This is probably one of the most important points to remember. When a government announces an issuance of 500 billion CFA francs, several questions must be asked: How much is genuinely new? How much is used to repay old securities? What is the interest rate? What is the duration? What will be the total bill for the taxpayer?

In Niger’s case, the May 2026 operation shows exactly why this distinction is essential: 446.386 billion CFA francs in gross amount handled, but only about 327 billion CFA francs in net resources generated. The difference is not an accounting detail; it completely changes the political reading of the figure.

Conclusion: sovereignty does not erase debt

The debate on the AES should not simply pit ‘sovereignty’ against ‘dependence’. The numbers tell a more complex story. As of 31 July 2026, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger had a combined 7,727.38 billion CFA francs in outstanding public securities on the WAEMU regional market.

This is not a debt directly owed to WAEMU as an organisation. It is a debt to investors who subscribed to securities issued by these states. But the observation remains: the three countries that claim greater financial autonomy continue to rely heavily on regional bond financing to cover their needs.

The real question is no longer whether the AES borrows. It is how far these states can continue to borrow without the cost of this ‘financial sovereignty’ ultimately weighing heavily on their future budgets.