The decision to keep pump prices artificially low is now exposing the true cost to Niger’s public finances. According to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, the National Oil Company of Niger (SONIDEP) is heading toward a staggering net loss of 28 billion FCFA for the 2026 fiscal year, driven by soaring domestic demand and high import costs on the international market.

The unintended consequences of Nigeria’s fuel reforms

The roots of this financial destabilization lie beyond Niger’s borders. President Bola Tinubu’s removal of gasoline subsidies in Nigeria has redirected a significant portion of demand toward Niger. Nigerien fuel, kept artificially cheap by the state, has become far more attractive than in its giant neighbor, leading to higher local consumption and increased cross-border flows.

Zinder refinery’s limited capacity

Faced with this influx, the Zinder Refining Company (SORAZ), whose production is capped, has been unable to meet the entire national market. To avoid shortages, SONIDEP has had to resort to massive imports of fuel bought at high prices on international markets, only to sell it at a loss domestically.

A total bill of 42 billion FCFA

To keep pump prices unchanged and protect household purchasing power, the overall cost of import-related subsidies is estimated at 42 billion FCFA for 2026.

The financial plan to absorb this bill directly weakens the national operator:

• 15 billion FCFA will be drawn from SONIDEP’s price stabilization mechanism and fund, depleting its precautionary reserves.
• The remaining 28 billion FCFA will close the year with a direct net loss in the state-owned company’s accounts.

Lost revenue for the public treasury

The repercussions of this trade-off go beyond SONIDEP’s balance sheet; they also hit the state budget. While the government initially expected to collect 3.3 billion FCFA in dividends from the public company’s performance, the IMF’s new projections reduce this direct tax revenue to zero.

By choosing to let SONIDEP absorb the oil shock rather than revising pump prices or strictly regulating cross-border flows, the authorities are preserving social peace in the short term. But this choice raises the question of the financial sustainability of the main national distributor, now forced to sacrifice its profitability and equity to serve as a price shield.