A critical countdown has begun for the Cameroonian economy. The Hilli Episeyo, a floating liquefaction unit that has been anchored off the coast of Kribi since 2018, is scheduled to depart national waters in July 2026. This exit marks the end of its contractual agreement between its owner, Golar, and the Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH). In its economic outlook report for the first quarter of 2026, the Comité National Économique et Financier (CNEF) identifies this impending departure as a primary factor contributing to an anticipated economic slowdown, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and the underperformance of several key export sectors.

According to detailed forecasts from the CNEF, Cameroon’s gross domestic product is projected to grow by approximately 3.2% in 2026, a decrease from 3.5% recorded the previous year, followed by 3.1% in 2027. An alternative, slightly more optimistic scenario within the same report suggests growth rates of 3.3% and 3.2% respectively. Under both projections, the core analysis remains consistent: the extractive sector is expected to exert downward pressure on overall growth, contributing a negative 0.4 percentage points in both fiscal years. Furthermore, the petroleum GDP, which encompasses all hydrocarbon-related activities, is anticipated to decline sharply by 16.1% in 2026 and a further 18% in 2027.

Cameroon’s LNG sector already facing decline ahead of vessel’s exit

The impending departure of the Hilli Episeyo coincides with an already vulnerable liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. Revenues generated from LNG exports reached 350.2 billion FCFA in 2025, a significant drop from 381 billion in 2024, 421 billion in 2023, and a peak of 622 billion in 2022. This represents an 8.1% year-on-year decline. This downward trend continued into the beginning of the year, with Cameroon’s total exports decreasing by 23.6% to 606.9 billion FCFA in the first quarter of 2026. Specifically, LNG exports fell by 28.4%, and crude oil exports by 14.4% during the same period.

Despite these challenges, LNG still accounted for a substantial 11.4% of Cameroon’s export revenues in 2025. The withdrawal of this floating production vessel will therefore strip Yaoundé of a crucial asset at a time when other vital sectors are also struggling. During the same period, sales of cocoa and its derivatives plummeted by 37.7%, timber exports dropped by 11.5%, aluminum sales by a staggering 53.7%, and raw rubber by 16.7%. This confluence of declines across various sectors significantly amplifies the potential impact of the looming gas sector shock.

Current account under pressure and delicate budgetary choices

Cameroon’s macroeconomic stability is poised to absorb a significant blow. The CNEF forecasts a current account deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026, escalating to 6.1% in 2027, a stark increase from the estimated 3.2% in 2025. The national budget deficit is expected to follow a similar trajectory, reaching 1.7% of GDP, then 2.1%. These projections also factor in a global trade slowdown, rising freight costs, and only moderate growth in public revenues.

Compounding these challenges, rising global oil prices present a classic dilemma for the executive branch. Sustaining current fuel pump prices would necessitate increasing fuel subsidies, incurring an immediate budgetary cost. Conversely, adjusting retail prices upward would inevitably reignite inflation and erode household purchasing power. While the CNEF does not offer a definitive solution, it underscores the extremely limited room for maneuver available to policymakers.

Yoyo-Yolanda and new blocks: future prospects without immediate impact

In anticipation of the post-Hilli Episeyo era, the SNH is actively pursuing an upstream portfolio diversification strategy. A key element of this plan is the transnational Yoyo-Yolanda field, jointly managed with Equatorial Guinea. Its geological resources are estimated at approximately 2,500 billion cubic feet, requiring an investment nearing 4 billion dollars. However, the project’s timeline remains contingent upon the successful finalization of technical and commercial agreements, securing necessary financing, and the construction of dedicated infrastructure.

Concurrently, the state-owned company is proceeding with the allocation of new exploration blocks within the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. Yet, commencing negotiations for production-sharing contracts does not guarantee the discovery of commercially viable reserves, nor does it ensure rapid production. The primary risk, therefore, lies in the duration of this transitional phase: the longer the period between the departure of the floating production vessel and the operationalization of new capacities, the more entrenched the negative impact of the extractive sector on Cameroon’s economic growth will become. It appears none of the announced initiatives are poised to offset the projected short-term decline in LNG exports.