The Democratic Republic of Congo has formally taken Rwanda to the International Court of Justice, accusing Kigali of backing armed groups — notably the AFC-M23 — operating in the country’s eastern region.

The move comes just one day before the first anniversary of a peace agreement signed in Washington between the DRC and Rwanda, aimed at ending the conflict in the east. Despite that deal, fighting between the Congolese army and the Rwanda-backed AFC-M23 rebellion continues unabated.

The United States has also imposed sanctions on several Rwandan officials accused of involvement in the illicit trade of minerals sourced from rebel-controlled areas.

Peace on paper, war on the ground

Kinshasa and Kigali had pledged to cooperate to restore peace in eastern DRC, where AFC-M23 rebels have occupied vast swathes of territory for over a year. Yet on the ground, little has changed.

“We expected that after signing that agreement things would improve — banks would reopen, airports would reopen. Unfortunately, we are still living the same misery,” said a resident of Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province.

“We wonder whether the United States still carries the same weight today. Why can’t the policy applied in the US be applied against our neighbours who are attacking us here in the DRC?” questioned another local. Another recalled: “So far, nothing works. When they meet, they show good intentions, but on the ground, the war continues.”

Sanctions and legal pressure mount on Kigali

The DRC alleges that Rwanda has supported armed groups responsible for grave human rights violations in eastern Congo for roughly three decades. Kinshasa has now turned to the International Court of Justice, demanding reparations for victims and a formal recognition of Kigali’s responsibility.

Separately, the United States has sanctioned Rwanda’s Gasabo Gold refinery, its executives, and several mining companies accused of trafficking minerals from AFC-M23-controlled zones in eastern DRC. According to Washington, this trade finances the rebellion.

However, some analysts doubt the effectiveness of these measures. “The general perception is that these sanctions do not seem sufficient to alter the strategic calculus of the actors involved. As long as the cost of confrontation remains lower than the cost of concession, they will maintain the status quo, which remains attractive to them,” said Yvon Muya, a conflict studies expert at Saint Paul University in Ottawa, Canada.

Preparing for a new escalation

Peace remains elusive as gunfire exchanges occur almost daily in several areas. Professor Bob Kabamba from the University of Liège in Belgium believes both sides are actually preparing for a fresh confrontation.

“During this time, each side is trying to reorganise, rearm, and get ready for what could be called the final battle — to see whether the government will manage to recover the territories seized by the rebellion, or whether the rebels will advance towards Katanga and thus destabilise the Kinshasa regime,” he said.

For more than a year, AFC-M23 rebels have occupied the cities of Goma and Bukavu, along with numerous other towns in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces. Clashes continue, worsening the already dire humanitarian situation for thousands of displaced people.