The attack that occurred on Thursday, June 18, 2026, has sent shockwaves across West Africa. Just as negotiations for reopening borders between Bénin and Niger reached a critical juncture, this fresh outbreak of violence has abruptly stalled diplomatic efforts. Behind this act, many observers now see a possible economic influence war, with some even suspecting interference from Togolese president Faure Gnassingbé.

JNIM as a tool for political sabotage?

The day’s assault was orchestrated by the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM). However, the speed and timing of this operation raise questions. Many regional analysts believe the terrorist group acted as a contractor for third-party state interests. The name of Faure Gnassingbé circulates insistently in diplomatic circles. The Togolese president is suspected of financing this precise attack with a single purpose: to derail the imminent accord between Cotonou and Niamey.

The port battle: the real motive

To grasp the underlying motives of this affair, one must look beyond the security front and examine the economic maps of the subregion. The crux of the problem: since the closure of borders between Bénin and Niger, the Autonomous Port of Lomé (PAL) has become Niamey’s alternative economic lifeline. Togo has massively captured the flow of Nigerien goods, generating record profits. Any normalization of relations between Romuald Wadagni and the Nigerien authorities would mean an immediate return of transit through the port of Cotonou, which is much closer and more natural for Niger. For Lomé, the loss would amount to billions of CFA francs.

A halt to regional diplomacy

By striking on the very day when positions were shifting, the sponsors of the attack ensure that mistrust once again takes hold between Bénin and Niger. If Lomé’s involvement were to be formally proven, it would mark a dramatic turning point in subregional relations, demonstrating that the commercial war has now crossed legal boundaries and entered the realm of bloodshed.