Mali outlines bold economic vision for 2029

The Malian government has unveiled a comprehensive economic strategy designed to propel the nation toward sustained growth over the next three years. Adopted during a recent Council of Ministers meeting, the 2027-2029 Medium-Term Budget and Economic Programming Document (DPBEP) sets an ambitious target of 6.5% average real economic growth annually through 2029.

Core pillars driving the economic roadmap

The plan hinges on three strategic pillars to achieve its growth objectives:

• Security stabilization: Gradual improvement in the national security landscape to create a conducive environment for business and investment.
• Structural reforms: Continued implementation of economic policies aimed at boosting productivity and efficiency across key sectors.
• Revenue mobilization: Strengthening public revenue collection to fund development initiatives and reduce fiscal deficits.

Fiscal targets and budgetary measures

The government has outlined clear fiscal milestones to support the growth strategy. Tax pressure is projected to rise incrementally:

• 2027: 13.9% of GDP
• 2028: 14.7% of GDP
• 2029: 15.1% of GDP

This translates to an average tax pressure of 14.6% over the three-year period, reflecting a deliberate effort to broaden the tax base while maintaining economic stability.

Financial outlay and strategic priorities

The implementation of this economic roadmap requires significant public investment. The annual average cost of government actions is estimated at 4,382.9 billion FCFA—equivalent to approximately 7.7 billion USD. These funds will be allocated to priority sectors identified in the national vision:

• « Mali Kura ɲɛtaasira ka bɛn san 2063 ma » (Mali Emerging Stronger by 2063): A long-term development framework aimed at addressing structural challenges.
• 2024-2033 National Emergence and Sustainable Development Strategy: A 10-year plan focused on transforming structural constraints into growth opportunities.

Economic context and external factors

The DPBEP 2027-2029 is being rolled out amid signs of economic recovery. Recent challenges, including a decline in gold production and disruptions in fuel supplies due to security incidents, have impacted growth. However, the outlook remains positive:

• Gold and lithium price surges: Expected to generate additional revenue for the state, bolstering public finances.
• Fuel supply restoration: Anticipated to ease logistical constraints and support industrial activity.
• Settlement of mining disputes: Expected to unlock investment in the mining sector, a key driver of the economy.
• Debt restructuring: The repayment of domestic arrears and resolution of outstanding obligations will enhance investor confidence.

Budgetary outlook and IMF projections

The 2026 Finance Bill projects total budget revenues of 3,057.8 billion FCFA, with the fiscal deficit maintained within the 3% GDP limit set by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). This fiscal discipline is underpinned by improved revenue collection and prudent expenditure management.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 5.7% GDP growth for 2027, aligning with the government’s optimistic projections. The Fund also highlights the potential for further acceleration if key reforms are implemented effectively.

Image: Economic activity in Bamako, Mali