The Niger-Bénin border, closed for three years, appears on the cusp of a significant shift. A recent visit by Nigerien Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine to Cotonou, where he attended the inauguration of Bénin’s new head of state, Romuald Wadagni, has effectively re-established a direct political channel between Niamey and Cotonou. During his address, the Nigerien government chief spoke of a “new path” for the two nations, a diplomatic articulation signaling the potential start of a thaw following the open crisis that erupted after the July 2023 coup.

The crucial Malanville border crossing, a primary conduit for commercial exchange between the two states, was shut down in the wake of sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) against Niger’s military regime. Since then, the flow of hydrocarbons, foodstuffs, and various goods has been redirected through Burkina Faso and Togo, leading to a substantial surge in logistical expenses for businesses on both sides.

Profound economic ramifications of the fracture

For an extended period, the port of Cotonou served as the vital maritime gateway for Niger’s landlocked economy. Its inaccessibility significantly impacted Béninese customs revenues and complicated supply chains for Niamey, particularly following the launch of the crude oil export pipeline connecting Agadem to Bénin’s Sèmè-Kpodji terminal. A contentious dispute surrounding this infrastructure, operated in collaboration with the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), had intensified the mutual distrust between the two capitals throughout 2024.

For communities residing along the border, the closure resulted in severe commercial stagnation in areas heavily reliant on transit trade. Informal operators, including transporters and merchants, resorted to numerous detours via secondary tracks, fueling an unregulated parallel market. Economist Olivier Vallée, formerly a technical advisor in Niger, highlighted that an official border reopening would offer immediate relief to households on both sides of the divide.

Security concerns at the heart of hesitations

Nevertheless, security remains a primary point of contention. Béninese authorities are contending with an escalation of armed groups, including those affiliated with the Islamic State in the Sahel and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), across the country’s northern regions, notably within the W and Pendjari national parks. Cotonou expresses apprehension that an inadequately managed reopening of the Malanville crossing could inadvertently facilitate the movement of combatants and the resupply of militant cells established in the tri-border area.

From Niger’s perspective, a similar level of distrust persists. The transitional authorities accuse Bénin of permitting the presence of elements hostile to the military government on its territory after the 2023 coup. Niamey has repeatedly alleged that Cotonou harbors training bases, claims consistently denied by Béninese officials. This climate of reciprocal suspicion explains why, as Olivier Vallée noted, both sides remain wary of infiltrations, whether jihadist or political in nature.

A conditional diplomatic thaw

The assumption of the Béninese presidency by Romuald Wadagni partially reshuffles the diplomatic landscape. As a former finance minister well-regarded by international donors, he inherits a situation where strong economic imperatives advocate for rapid reconciliation. The full resumption of Nigerien crude oil exports through the Béninese terminal represents an annual stake worth hundreds of billions of CFA francs for both national treasuries.

However, the precise timeline for a full reopening remains uncertain. Several technical stages are anticipated, including the establishment of enhanced control protocols at Malanville, the potential reactivation of a joint security commission, and clarification regarding the status of citizens from both nations who have been stranded since 2023. Niger’s move towards renewed regional cooperation, even as Niamey departed ECOWAS alongside Mali and Burkina Faso to establish the Confederation of Sahel States, introduces an additional layer of institutional complexity. The recent gesture in Cotonou undeniably stands as the most tangible political signal since the crisis began.