Had Ousmane Sonko possessed greater foresight, the National Assembly would have presented itself as the perfect sanctuary for him to patiently await 2029. This was especially true after his party, Pastef, secured a resounding victory in the November 2024 legislative elections.

Sonko likely believed that the most effective strategy to ensure President Faye remained committed to their initial understanding and didn’t grow too comfortable in the presidential office was to maintain a close watch over him. This meant directly exercising executive prerogatives alongside Diomaye Faye, who, at least initially, seemed content with a more ceremonial role. However, as Machiavel once cautioned, power transforms, and those who empower others often hasten their own downfall.

The inevitable outcome

In a presidential system like Senegal’s, there is ultimately no room for any figure other than the President of the Republic. A Prime Minister, no matter how influential, remains merely a “first among equals.”

Sonko soon found his position within the government increasingly restrictive. Subsequently, on July 1, 2025, the Supreme Court upheld the ruling that rendered him ineligible for the 2029 elections, further dimming his political prospects. Compounding this, he perceived a lack of concern from President Diomaye Faye regarding his predicament. This ignited the dormant political animal within Sonko, prompting him to react. With institutional avenues gradually closing, he opted to reassert himself through popular mobilization, sometimes pushing boundaries, as seen in the circumstances surrounding his assumption of leadership in the National Assembly. This legislative body now serves as his stronghold, secured by sheer numbers, seemingly immune to accusations of usurpation from Senegal’s diminished opposition. Only President Diomaye Faye holds the authority to consult the Constitutional Council on the legality of Sonko’s move to the Assembly, a step he has, for now, chosen not to take.

President Diomaye Faye’s calculated inaction

In the land of Lat Dior Diop, the revered King of Cayor and a prominent figure in 19th-century Senegal’s anti-colonial resistance, political dynamics are rarely straightforward. Simply citing constitutional articles and subsequent laws offers little insight into the current unfolding drama. To paraphrase Senegal’s motto, there are two key players and one ultimate objective. President Diomaye Faye, astute and measured, and Ousmane Sonko, the “Djambar” or “hurricane,” are these two central figures. Their shared goal is the 2029 presidential election.

These two political protagonists wield distinct instruments. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye commands the state institutions and the rule of law. Ousmane Sonko, conversely, relies on the unwavering strength of his dedicated supporters within a well-organized party, and his willingness to challenge established norms without fear of transgression.

Leveraging power: how each leader utilizes their resources

Ousmane Sonko undeniably holds a powerful position within the National Assembly, though its efficacy is tempered by several factors. These include the potential for a hostile takeover, the looming threat of the Assembly’s dissolution, and, critically, the risk of legal charges for usurpation should the Constitutional Council deem his re-entry as a deputy illegal following a formal referral.

Meanwhile, President Diomaye Faye appears to be adopting a patient approach. Having seemingly shed the burden of Sonko’s direct presence in the executive, he aims, alongside his new Premier Minister Ahmadou Al Aminou Lô, to stabilize economic affairs and engage with international financial institutions. He recognizes that a confrontation is inevitable and is reportedly preparing for it with strong support from his inner circle.