The promising start to the cocoa export campaign in Côte d’Ivoire, with nearly 1 million tonnes already sold under contracts for the 2026-27 harvest, could face disruptions due to the anticipated arrival of the El Niño climate phenomenon in July, warn industry analysts and agricultural commodity traders.

To manage stock levels, the Council of Coffee and Cocoa (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has increased its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, according to sector insiders. These measures reflect the soaring global demand and the anticipated tightening of the market when the new season begins on September 1st.

« We’ve already sold between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming harvest, but we’ve chosen to slow the pace and exercise caution, » revealed a source within the CCC. Meanwhile, trading firms project exports to reach between 1.1 and 1.2 million tonnes, justifying the higher premium demanded by the CCC as a reflection of market strength.

However, this upward trend could stall if El Niño materializes, potentially bringing severe drought conditions to major cocoa-producing nations like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria—all of which could disrupt production cycles.

Many exporters highlight that the most pressing risk for 2027 isn’t El Niño but rather the aging cocoa plantations and the sharp rise in fertilizer and phytosanitary product costs. « I don’t see El Niño as an immediate threat to production. The real challenge lies in the shortage of fertilizers and crop protection chemicals, » stated the director of an Abidjan-based export company.