The jihadist alliance JNIM, affiliated with al-Qaïda, has escalated its campaign in Mali by expanding its blockade on Bamako and targeting critical infrastructure. Over the weekend, a series of attacks along the Ségou-Bamako corridor—Mali’s primary supply route from the east—resulted in the torching of at least ten buses. Simultaneously, facilities linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region were deliberately damaged, crippling a key component of the country’s energy grid.

Manantali: a strategic target in a war of attrition

The assault on Manantali is not a random act but a calculated strike against Mali’s energy backbone. Operated under a tripartite agreement involving Mauritania and Senegal through the Organisation for the Development of the Senegal River (OMVS), this dam supplies a substantial portion of Mali’s urban electricity. By disabling its transmission lines, the JNIM is no longer just targeting military forces—it is undermining the foundation of urban life, where power cuts paralyze public services, trade, and industry with immediate effect.

This pattern of disruption has intensified over recent weeks, with a systematic campaign against fuel convoys entering Mali from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists are leveraging fuel shortages as a political tool, betting on public frustration to weaken the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively shielded from direct conflict, now finds itself at the heart of this grinding battle for control.

Army counters with limited gains

In response to the multi-pronged offensive, Malian military command claims to have intensified ground and aerial operations across several regions. Military escorts have successfully escorted hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako in recent days, temporarily easing pressure on gas stations under siege. However, this relief is fragile: each convoy demands significant resources, and the long-term security of national highways remains an elusive goal.

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) are caught in a double bind. In the west and central regions, the JNIM continues to ambush and destroy infrastructure. Meanwhile, tensions in the north—particularly around Kidal—remain at a tense impasse, with further clashes likely as rebel factions within the Permanent Strategic Framework regroup. Bamako is now managing two fronts with dwindling human and material reserves.

Regional ripple effects of the blockade

The impact of Mali’s blockade extends far beyond its borders. Neighboring economies, including those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire, are feeling the strain as vital trade corridors across West Africa deteriorate. The slowdown in goods flow is already affecting ports in Dakar and Abidjan, which historically handled significant transit traffic toward the Sahel hinterland. The Sahel States Confederation, uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has struggled to forge a unified response to the economic warfare waged by jihadist groups.

The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared infrastructure under the OMVS framework. Any further damage could directly disrupt electricity supplies to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional concern. International partners, including donors and military suppliers, face a delicate balancing act: supporting Bamako’s sovereignty while safeguarding transboundary critical infrastructure.

On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a besieged capital underscores the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. The JNIM is no longer fighting merely for territorial dominance—it is aiming to suffocate the state itself.