Paraguay vs Australia: why a draw is the most likely result in group d finale

What conclusion awaits Group D? Ahead of the third and final matchday in the early hours of Thursday to Friday, two things are certain: with two wins in two games, the United States have qualified for the round of 16 and secured top spot. Turkey, their opponent tonight in Los Angeles, are already eliminated. So this fixture may not be the most thrilling of the tournament — it carries no competitive weight for either side.

To attack or run down the clock?

But plenty of goals and drama are far from guaranteed in the other Group D match between Paraguay and Australia either. That encounter, taking place simultaneously in Santa Clara near San Francisco, carries significant stakes: second place. However, both teams are level on three points, with the Socceroos ahead of Paraguay on goal difference (0 vs -2). If they share a draw, they would be almost certain to advance to the round of 16 — under the new 48-team format, four points should be enough to finish among the eight best third-placed sides. Paraguay would therefore be virtually assured of progressing.

Will these two teams push for the second spot and go all out for a win, or will they settle for a draw that suits both? Anything is possible, but World Cup history has seen third group matches where both sides simply passed the ball and let the clock run. In any case, Australia and Paraguay will have a clearer picture after the final standings of the two groups that play before them (E and F). And if results go their way, staying up until 4 a.m. might not be worth it…