At 93 years old, Paul Biya, who has presided over Cameroon since 1982 and holds the distinction of being the world’s longest-serving head of state, has now been away from Cameroonian soil for 48 days. He departed on June 7 for what an official statement described as a “short private stay in Europe,” accompanied by First Lady Chantal Biya.

Mr. Biya’s health, a frequent topic of speculation given his regular visits to Geneva, has been the subject of numerous rumors, some of which the government has explicitly denied.

On June 18, in response to various press reports, Communication Minister René Emmanuel Sadi issued a statement refuting claims that the Cameroonian leader was hospitalized in a Geneva clinic.

For Cameroon’s opposition, the president’s prolonged absence highlights a “glaring institutional void,” as articulated by Mamadou Mota, vice-president of the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC), in a social media post on Friday.

“On autopilot”

In mid-July, Patricia Tomaïno Ndam Njoya, president of the Democratic Union of Cameroon (UDC), urged the government to establish an “impartial procedure for determining the temporary or definitive incapacitation” of the head of state.

However, James Fame Ndongo, a senior figure in the presidential party and Minister of Higher Education, dismissed accusations of a power vacuum on Tuesday. He contended that “wherever he is, the head of state meticulously oversees the files submitted to him by his collaborators.”

Disputes over a potential power vacuum in Cameroon are not new; they resurface periodically. The most recent instance occurred in late 2024, when Mr. Biya spent approximately fifty days outside the country.

Another opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), dryly remarked on Friday that the nation was running “on autopilot.”

These recurrent absences, a pattern spanning more than two decades, continue to fuel the frustration of many Cameroonians grappling with governmental inertia. “People are already exhausted from waiting,” observed Viviane Ondoua Biwolé, a professor of public management at the University of Yaoundé.

She elaborated, “Firstly, because the current government has been in power for eight years, setting a record. Secondly, because we are emerging from an election with very mixed results. Many believe that after an election, it’s time for renewal.”

Mr. Biya’s re-election to an eighth term in October 2025 was met with protests that were violently suppressed, with the government acknowledging “several dozen” deaths without providing an exact toll.

The election results, disputed by the opposition, also prompted a degree of reservation from Western diplomatic missions.

Two months later, in his December 31 address to the Nation, Mr. Biya promised to form a new governmental team “in the coming days.”

Yet, seven months have passed, and the new government he himself announced remains unformed. This delay is compounded by multiple postponements of municipal and legislative elections, indefinitely extending the terms of incumbent officials.

The post-Biya era

Despite these issues, the Cameroonian government has recently initiated some institutional adjustments. These include the replacement of the presidents of both parliamentary chambers in March, followed by the creation of a vice-president position through a constitutional reform in early May.

However, nearly three months after the reform, no vice-president has been appointed. This prolonged anticipation has inevitably fueled further speculation.

In June, an individual appeared at the public radio headquarters in Yaoundé, attempting to submit a document purported to be a presidential decree appointing the Vice-President of the Republic.

The counterfeit document bore presidential seals and a signature attributed to Mr. Biya. While journalists, vigilant against misinformation, did not broadcast it, the incident nonetheless contributed to the swirling rumors.

Such institutional maneuvers only intensify discussions about the post-Biya era and appear to accelerate the race for his succession, which remains shrouded in uncertainty.

“There is, more or less visibly, a crisis at the summit of the state among the president’s inner circle,” asserted Ms. Ondoua Biwolé.

This observation is corroborated by political scientist Stéphane Akoa, who stated, “Increasing indiscretions point to quarrels among the different clans within his entourage.”

Behind one of these “clans” looms the shadow of Chantal Biya, the First Lady, who is “increasingly present in state affairs,” with “her name often cited in decision-making and top-level appointments,” noted Mr. Akoa.

As long as a vice-president has not been named, the responsibility to assume power in the event of a presidential vacancy falls to the President of the Senate, Aboubakary Abdoulaye, until a presidential election can be organized.