In Mali, the jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has escalated its blockade, pushing the country’s economic crisis to new heights. Over the weekend, at least ten passenger buses were set ablaze along the Ségou-Bamako highway, a vital supply route for the capital. Simultaneously, attackers targeted and destroyed electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region. While Malian forces continue military operations across multiple fronts, they have yet to break the economic stranglehold strangling the nation.

Manantali dam: a critical target in the war of attrition

The assault on Manantali is far from random. Operated under a regional agreement involving Mauritania and Senegal through the Senegal River Development Organization (OMVS), the dam is a cornerstone of Mali’s electricity grid. By striking its transmission lines, JNIM is no longer merely targeting security forces—it is undermining the very backbone of urban life. Power outages ripple through public services, businesses, and industries, paralyzing daily life in Bamako and beyond.

This tactic follows weeks of systematic attacks on fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on eroding public trust in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. The capital, once relatively insulated from the worst of the conflict, now finds itself at the heart of a grinding battle for survival.

Military response and fragile respite

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) report ongoing ground and air operations across several regions. Recent military escorts have successfully escorted hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako, temporarily easing the pressure on gas stations under siege. Yet this relief is fleeting. Each convoy demands massive resources, and the long-term security of national roads remains an elusive goal.

FAMa faces a dual threat. In the west and central regions, JNIM has intensified ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. To the north, in the Kidal area, tensions remain frozen in a tense standoff, with further clashes likely against rebel factions of the Permanent Strategic Framework. The Malian government is thus navigating two distinct battlefields, with dwindling human and material resources.

Regional ripple effects of the blockade

The Malian blockade has spilled beyond national borders, sending shockwaves through neighboring economies. Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire are watching with growing concern as trade corridors across West Africa deteriorate. Sluggish goods movement is straining ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a significant share of traffic traditionally feeds the Sahel hinterland. The Sahel States Confederation, uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to forge a unified response to the economic warfare waged by jihadist groups.

The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared infrastructure under the OMVS framework. Further damage could directly disrupt electricity supplies to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners—whether financial backers or military suppliers—must now weigh their support for Bamako’s sovereignty against the need to protect cross-border critical infrastructure.

On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a besieged capital underscores the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. JNIM is no longer content with territorial control—it seeks to suffocate the state itself.