In Mali, the blockade enforced by the JNIM—a jihadist group affiliated with al-Qaeda—has intensified, reaching new heights over the weekend. At least ten buses were set ablaze along the critical Ségou-Bamako corridor, a vital supply route for the capital from eastern regions. Simultaneously, electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region was deliberately targeted and destroyed. While the Malian army continues its operations across multiple fronts, it has yet to successfully alleviate the mounting economic strain gripping the country.

Manantali: a strategic target in a war of attrition

The assault on Manantali’s equipment is far from incidental. The dam, managed collaboratively by Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal under the Organisation for the Development of the Senegal River (OMVS), serves as a backbone of Mali’s electricity network. By targeting its transmission lines, the JNIM is no longer just confronting defense and security forces—it is striking at the heart of urban economic activity, where power cuts cripple public services, businesses, and industries almost instantly.

This pattern follows weeks of systematic attacks on fuel convoys entering Mali from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on eroding public confidence in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated from the worst of the conflict, now finds itself at the epicenter of a grueling battle of endurance.

Army’s response and fragile respite

In response to this multifaceted offensive, the Malian military reports ongoing ground and air operations across several regions. Military escorts have facilitated the entry of hundreds of tanker trucks into Bamako in recent days, temporarily easing the pressure on gas stations under siege. However, this logistical relief remains precarious. Each convoy demands substantial resources, and the long-term security of national highways appears unattainable in the near term.

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) also face a dual challenge. In the west and central regions, the JNIM has escalated ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. Meanwhile, in the northern Kidal region, tensions remain locked in a tense stalemate, with renewed clashes seemingly inevitable against the backdrop of rebel factions within the Permanent Strategic Framework. Bamako’s leadership is thus navigating two distinct fronts, with dwindling human and material resources.

A regional equation under strain

The blockade’s impact extends well beyond Mali’s borders. Neighboring economies—particularly those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are increasingly alarmed by the deterioration of West African trade corridors. The slowdown in goods movement is taking a toll on ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a significant portion of traffic traditionally transited toward the Sahelian hinterland. The Alliance of Sahel States, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has so far struggled to devise a unified response to the economic warfare waged by jihadist groups.

The attack on Manantali also raises critical questions about shared installations under the OMVS. Any further damage could directly disrupt electricity supply to Senegal and Mauritania, transforming Mali’s domestic crisis into a regional dilemma. External partners, including donors and military suppliers, face a delicate balancing act between supporting Bamako’s sovereignty and safeguarding cross-border critical infrastructure.

On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the harsh reality of a capital under siege underscores the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. The JNIM is no longer merely contesting territory—it is systematically strangling the state.