Today marks a significant political turning point for Senegal, as the nation welcomes a new Prime Minister while awaiting the imminent election of a new National Assembly President. These developments herald a substantial realignment of the political power structure.

The focus begins with the appointment of the new Prime Minister, Ahmadou Al Aminou Mohamed Lo. Previously serving as the Minister for the National Transformation Agenda Senegal 2050, Lo is widely characterized as a seasoned technocrat stepping into the top executive role. He is renowned as an expert in both national and international financial systems, a profile deemed strategic given Senegal’s current fiscal challenges and ambitious development goals. His deep understanding of monetary and financial issues has been central to the new administration’s efforts since its inception. Lo’s expertise spans macroeconomics, banking regulation, financial markets, and Islamic finance, positioning him as a key architect of the country’s evolving governance framework.

Sonko’s potential return to the National Assembly helm

This political offensive, initiated by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye with the appointment of the new Prime Minister, now extends to the National Assembly. A crucial session is scheduled for this Tuesday morning, with a dual agenda: the potential reintegration of Ousmane Sonko as a Member of Parliament and the election of a new President of the National Assembly. This session is poised to be decisive in the institutional restructuring following Sonko’s dismissal from the Prime Minister’s office.

A central question remains: is Ousmane Sonko on a path to assume the speaker’s chair? The strategic objective of his party, Pastef, appears to be to counter President Faye’s recent decisions by installing their historical leader at the head of the legislative branch. Freed from governmental duties, Sonko would then command a powerful platform to influence budgetary matters, parliamentary inquiry commissions, and the legislative reform agenda. This strategy is bolstered by Pastef’s formidable majority in the Assembly, holding 130 out of 165 seats, secured during the November 2024 legislative elections.

However, a significant legal uncertainty casts a shadow over this potential move. Several jurists and political figures are openly questioning Ousmane Sonko’s right to reclaim his parliamentary mandate. Prominent former parliamentarians, Cheikhou Oumar Sy and Théodore Chérif Monteil, assert that Senegalese law generally considers the replacement of a deputy by a substitute to be definitive for the entire legislative term. Consequently, the upcoming Tuesday session promises to be contentious. Should Ousmane Sonko’s reintegration be validated, Senegal would enter an unprecedented period of cohabitation, wherein the head of state would need to navigate a parliamentary majority loyal to his primary political rival.

Looking ahead to 2029 and potential instability

Against this backdrop, the 2029 presidential election has already become a central preoccupation across Senegal. Ousmane Sonko is perceived as more determined than ever to ascend to the supreme magistracy. His parliamentary majority has already initiated reforms to the electoral system, which many interpret as measures designed to remove the obstacles that prevented his candidacy in 2024. A fundamental question lingers: will Sonko patiently await the normal electoral timeline, or will he seek to accelerate the political calendar by imposing a new institutional power dynamic? This very question presents the primary risk to the country’s stability. When two powerful legitimacies, originating from the same political camp, cease to coexist harmoniously, the entire system risks descending into perpetual confrontation. Senegal, long lauded as a beacon of democratic stability in a region often beset by institutional crises, may be entering a phase of significant turbulence.

This potential for turbulence could manifest rapidly, beginning with the formation of the new government. Questions arise regarding the composition of the new cabinet: will ministers primarily hail from Pastef, the party to which President Faye still belongs, or will they be loyalists to the President without direct party affiliation? Furthermore, a bold move by President Diomaye Faye could involve dissolving the National Assembly. While this might be an attempt to secure a more favorable majority, it carries substantial risk. Should Pastef return with an even stronger majority, President Faye’s prospects for 2029 would be severely diminished, and Ousmane Sonko would undeniably cement his role as Senegal’s ultimate political kingmaker.