Recent developments have dramatically reshaped Sénégal’s political landscape, marked by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s dismissal of Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko on Friday, May 22. This rupture, long anticipated, stems from escalating political tensions and increasingly overt disagreements between the two leading figures of the executive branch in the country known for Teranga.

Concurrently, Malick Ndiaye, the President of the National Assembly, announced his resignation from the parliamentary leadership, though he intends to remain a member of the legislative body. This move appears to be a carefully orchestrated maneuver to create an opening for the former Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, who has sought to reclaim his seat as a deputy.

The political divide deepens

The Parliament is scheduled to convene in an extraordinary session on May 26 to elect its new president. All indications suggest that, barring an unforeseen turn of events, the former mayor of Ziguinchor, Ousmane Sonko, recently removed from the premiership under known circumstances, is poised to take the helm of the National Assembly. This strategic position would allow him to continue his ongoing power struggle with the head of state, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye.

A critical question now arises: how far will this conflict between the two former allies extend? This query gains particular relevance considering that, beyond the former National Assembly President’s resignation—which signals loyalty to Sonko—Ousmane Sonko is expected to secure the parliamentary presidency with little difficulty, should he desire it. The ruling Pastef party (Patriotes africains du Sénégal pour le travail, l’éthique et la fraternité), of which Sonko remains the prominent figure, commands a substantial majority, holding no fewer than 130 of the 165 seats in Parliament.

This highlights the immense significance of Tuesday’s session, which paves the way for the former Prime Minister to maintain his presence in the political arena and within the highest echelons of state decision-making by becoming the head of Parliament. It is a highly strategic role, especially given the apparent breakdown in relations between Sonko, a native of Thiès, and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who is reportedly determined to emerge from the shadow of his former mentor and assert his own authority.

Ousmane Sonko’s potential to obstruct

Nevertheless, amidst this clash of ambitions between former comrades who have reached the pinnacle of state power, Sénégal faces the risk of an institutional crisis. This is particularly true if, as the scenario suggests, Ousmane Sonko is elected President of the National Assembly following the May 26 session. Such an outcome would establish him as the second most powerful figure in the state and the constitutional successor to the president.

From this vantage point, Sonko could at any moment utilize his control over the legislative branch to impede government actions. Predicting the full extent of this rivalry between the two leaders of the ruling party remains a challenge. Indeed, if not carefully managed, this situation risks negatively impacting the party’s cohesion. With these two prominent figures in open conflict, one might wonder if Pastef is not prematurely undermining its own strength.

It is evident that since their ascent to power, Ousmane Sonko has been eager to assume the presidency himself, having propelled Bassirou Diomaye Faye into the role under circumstances that are widely understood (Sonko had been deemed ineligible in May 2023 following an appeal, preventing his candidacy in the 2024 presidential election). He had aimed to be the kingmaker.

All signs suggest that by now entering into open conflict with the head of state, he not only refuses to remain in Faye’s shadow but also believes he holds sufficient leverage to pursue his presidential ambitions, overcoming the judicial obstacle encountered in 2024.

A delicate balance of power

This is especially pertinent in light of the new Electoral Code, which was smoothly passed on May 12. This revision aims to clarify cases of ineligibility and prevent the disqualification of candidates for political reasons. However, the opposition perceived it as a means to open candidacies for both Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye.

While the fierce opponent of former President Macky Sall can still claim significant popularity within the party he founded, the question of his eligibility for the next presidential election (scheduled for March 2029) is likely to remain uncertain until the Constitutional Council issues a definitive ruling.

Should this rivalry between the two prominent figures at the highest level of government intensify, it would create a delicate balance of power, a