The Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (Jnim), the predominant Al-Qaeda-linked jihadist coalition operating in the Sahel, mounted an assault on a Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) military outpost located in central Mali on Sunday, August 9. This operation marks another incident in a series of such attacks claimed by the militant network against regular army positions, underscoring the ongoing difficulties faced by the transitional authorities in establishing security across the nation’s rural territories.

Another offensive against FAMa positions

The targeted garrison is situated within a zone that has become a primary hub for Jnim’s activities. For several years, central Mali, particularly the areas surrounding Mopti and Ségou, has been the scene of the most intense and deadly clashes between government forces and jihadist combatants. The coalition, led by Iyad Ag Ghali, has firmly established itself here, capitalizing on intercommunal tensions and the erosion of public services in remote areas.

The operational method described aligns with a well-practiced tactic: a synchronized assault on a military camp, an attempt to seize weapons and vehicles, followed by a swift withdrawal before potential air reinforcements can arrive. This form of asymmetric warfare, executed by mobile units on motorcycles, has become the signature approach of Jnim across the central Sahel. Independent sources have not provided precise figures for human casualties, as Malian authorities maintain tight control over information concerning military setbacks.

Jihadist pressure reshapes the security landscape

Following the departure of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in late 2023, and subsequently that of the French Barkhane forces, the security dynamic has undergone a profound transformation. Bamako now relies on its own capabilities, bolstered by assistance from the Russian Africa Corps, a structure that succeeded the Wagner group after Evguéni Prigojine’s demise. This reconfiguration has not halted the jihadist advance, as evidenced by the recurring attacks on military installations.

Jnim, under the leadership of Tuareg chief Iyad Ag Ghali since 2017, comprises several katibas originating from Ansar Dine, the Macina Liberation Front, and Al-Mourabitoune. Its capacity to strike simultaneously in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger positions it as the primary threat to the three member states of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). In practice, the organization seeks to isolate regional capitals by implementing numerous road blockades and imposing its own governance in areas under its control.

A constant test for the Malian transition

For the transitional authorities, led by General Assimi Goïta, the repeated nature of these assaults presents both a political and military challenge. The legitimacy of the current government largely hinges on its pledge to restore the country’s security sovereignty. However, successive setbacks, notably the one suffered at Tinzaouatène in July 2024 against a coalition of rebels from the Permanent Strategic Framework and Jnim fighters, fuel questions regarding the effectiveness of the current security apparatus.

Regional partners are observing the situation with apprehension. The Confederation of Sahel States, formalized in July 2024 between Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey, aimed to pool counter-terrorism efforts. Nevertheless, operational coordination remains limited, with each national army confronting its own urgent challenges. Furthermore, humanitarian access is deteriorating in jihadist-held zones, where non-governmental organizations struggle to maintain their operations.

The frequency of attacks on military camps also calls into question the perimeter defense doctrine adopted by the FAMa. The concentration of troops in a few fortified strongholds, intended to reduce their vulnerability, inadvertently transforms these sites into prime targets for an adversary capable of focusing its resources on identified objectives. In the medium term, the issue of territorial coverage and the reclamation of abandoned areas will become increasingly critical for the authorities in Bamako.