Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP) has released comprehensive demographic projections for the period spanning 2024 to 2060. These forecasts take into account multiple scenarios, including shifts in birth rates, mortality rates, and migration patterns.

Under the central, or tendential, scenario, Morocco’s population is expected to grow from 36.8 million in 2024 to 43.3 million by 2060. This represents a 17.8% increase over 36 years, averaging an additional 182,000 inhabitants each year.

Urban expansion and rural decline

The country is witnessing a significant shift in its demographic landscape. Urban populations are projected to swell to nearly 32.5 million by 2060, accounting for roughly three-quarters of the total population. Conversely, rural areas will see a decline, with inhabitants dropping to around 10.8 million. The HCP highlights that this transformation will intensify challenges tied to rapid urbanization, emphasizing the urgent need for public policies focused on housing, infrastructure, and social services to mitigate territorial imbalances.

The institution also stresses the importance of bolstering rural development. Improving living conditions, retaining young populations, and enhancing local resources are key to preserving the country’s social and territorial cohesion.

Fewer births, fewer schoolchildren

A declining birth rate will lead to a noticeable reduction in the number of young people. The preschool population (ages 4-5) is expected to drop by 23.8%, from 1.25 million in 2024 to 960,000 by 2060. Similarly, primary school-aged children (6-11 years) will decrease by 27%, from 4.16 million to 3.04 million.

The first cycle of secondary education (ages 12-14) will see a 22.9% reduction, while the 15-17 age group, which includes both young workers and high school students, will shrink by 11.4%, from 1.85 million to 1.64 million. This demographic contraction presents an opportunity for educational reforms, allowing resources previously allocated to accommodate growing student numbers to be redirected toward improving teaching quality and curriculum development.

Labor force dynamics and aging workforce

The working-age population (15-59 years) is projected to increase from 22.08 million in 2024 to nearly 24.96 million by 2060, a rise of 13.1% or an average annual growth of about 80,190 people. However, this growth will be unevenly distributed. Urban areas will experience a 34.4% increase, rising from 14.2 million to 19.1 million, while rural regions face a 25.4% decline, dropping from 7.9 million to 5.9 million.

The HCP warns that this trend will place significant pressure on the labor market, particularly in cities where a growing workforce from rural areas will seek employment. Young adults aged 18-24, who represent the primary entry point into the labor market, will see their numbers decline slightly nationwide by 3.1%, from 3.89 million to 3.77 million. However, urban areas will experience an 11.3% increase, while rural areas will see a 28.3% decrease.

Meanwhile, the population aged 50-59 will surge by 44.9%, from 3.74 million to 5.42 million, driven by a 76.6% increase in urban areas contrasted with a 17.4% decline in rural zones. This surge in the working-age population occurs before the full impact of aging takes hold, giving Morocco a window to capitalize on its available workforce before dependency ratios rise sharply.

Aging population accelerates

The most striking demographic shift will be the rapid aging of the population. By 2060, individuals aged 60 and older will surge from 5 million in 2024 to 10.9 million, growing at an average annual rate of 2.2%. This age group will represent 25.2% of the total population, up from 13.6% in 2024, 9.4% in 2014, and just 8% in 2004. Urban areas will see this demographic multiply 2.5 times, from 3.18 million to 8.06 million, while rural areas will experience a 1.6-fold increase, from 1.81 million to 2.83 million.

The population aged 70 and above will experience even more dramatic growth, tripling from 2.06 million in 2024 to 6.3 million by 2060. Urban areas will see a 256% increase, from 1.25 million to 4.44 million, while rural regions will rise from 0.81 million to 1.86 million. The HCP attributes this trend to the decline in birth rates beginning in 1975, advancements in healthcare reducing mortality, and, to a lesser extent, migration flows.

Structural challenges ahead

The accelerating aging trend will lead to a rise in the dependency ratio—the number of dependents (young and elderly) relative to the working-age population. This shift poses significant challenges, particularly in financing pensions, providing healthcare for an older population, and maintaining intergenerational solidarity at a time when rural-to-urban migration is weakening traditional family bonds.

The HCP emphasizes that aging is a structural and enduring trend, regardless of the scenario. It calls for proactive public policies in education, employment, urban planning, and social protection to navigate Morocco’s transition toward a slower-growing but rapidly aging society.