For months, a palpable shift has been evident in Dakar, from bustling newsrooms and ministerial offices to vibrant popular neighborhoods: the powerful alliance that propelled Senegal’s opposition to power was showing significant strain. The iconic campaign slogan, « Diomaye mooy Sonko, Sonko mooy Diomaye » (Diomaye is Sonko, and Sonko is Diomaye, in Wolof), gradually lost its resonance. Over weeks, this once-unifying phrase transformed into a stark reality: « Diomaye n’est plus Sonko », as President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his now-former Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko increasingly ceased to conceal their growing disagreements.

Indeed, the friction points between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko had escalated, rendering their cohabitation at the pinnacle of the state almost untenable. Divergent approaches, intense power struggles, rivalries among their respective entourages, and a clear competition for true leadership in governance all pointed towards an inevitable outcome: one of the two figures would eventually have to yield.

In the end, by opting to dismiss his Prime Minister, the Senegalese head of state undeniably sought to affirm his presidential authority. Yet, this decisive move may also carry unforeseen consequences.

Ousmane Sonko’s strategic maneuver

For several months, Ousmane Sonko appeared to methodically push his relationship with Bassirou Diomaye Faye toward a breaking point. The prominent Pastef leader understood that a lasting coexistence with a president progressively intent on fully exercising his authority was unsustainable. Crucially, he also recognized that in an open confrontation, the emotional and militant allegiance within the party would likely remain firmly on his side.

This constituted the core of his strategy: to compel Diomaye Faye to choose between the assertion of his institutional authority and the preservation of Pastef’s political unity.

By remaining within the government while consistently demonstrating political autonomy, Ousmane Sonko steadily made the situation unworkable. Each ambiguous public statement, every public divergence, and every implicit reminder of his status as the movement’s historical leader intensified the pressure on the head of state.

The Senegalese president found himself ensnared in a no-win scenario. If he accepted this dual leadership structure, he risked appearing as a weakened president, incapable of imposing his will. However, dismissing his Prime Minister carried the significant risk of being perceived as the one who shattered Pastef’s foundational pact and, in the eyes of many militants, betrayed the movement’s original spirit.

In essence, Ousmane Sonko stood to gain significantly from being removed from office. A forced departure now allows him to fully reclaim the role he never ceased to embody for a segment of the base: the historical leader, the political martyr, and the central figure advocating for a break with the old system.

The allure of new advisors

Bassirou Diomaye Faye might have fallen into a second subtle trap. Since his ascension to power, a new cohort has gravitated around the president: political operators, former supporters of Macky Sall’s regime, opportunistic notables, and seasoned political defectors. All now echo a singular message: “You are the president. You must demonstrate who is truly in charge.”

Such discourse naturally flatters presidential authority. After all, within Senegal’s institutional framework, it seems incongruous for a Prime Minister to project an image of being the political equal of the head of state. However, Bassirou Diomaye Faye would do well to scrutinize the true motivations of these newfound allies.

Where were these individuals when Ousmane Sonko and Diomaye Faye confronted the judicial apparatus of the Macky Sall administration? Where were they during the imprisonments, the violently suppressed demonstrations, and the smear campaigns against Pastef? Many were comfortably enjoying the privileges of the very system they now denounce with sudden, revolutionary fervor.

These political opportunists excel at detecting fissures, amplifying rivalries, and fueling competing egos. Their political survival often hinges on dividing former comrades-in-arms. African political history abounds with similar examples: hopeful movements reaching power only to be weakened less by opposition than by their own internal divisions.

The peril for Diomaye Faye is substantial: to believe that those who encouraged him to break with Ousmane Sonko are genuinely working to consolidate his power. Many may primarily seek to weaken Pastef itself, thereby neutralizing the political project it once embodied.

The potential fracture of Pastef

An open power struggle has now begun, one that could potentially favor Ousmane Sonko. The current political reality in Senegal remains undeniable: Pastef holds significant dominance across the national stage, thanks to its exceptional grassroots presence, a youthful and highly mobilized base, and a powerful narrative forged during years of confrontation with the Macky Sall regime. Within this dynamic, Sonko remains the pivotal figure.

Even when hindered by judicial action and absent from the presidential ballot, it was around him that the hope for change crystallized. A significant portion of the public perceived Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s election as a victory by proxy for Ousmane Sonko.

While the president certainly possesses institutional legitimacy, his former Prime Minister retains formidable popular and militant legitimacy. In any future political or electoral contest, this factor could prove decisive.

Should Pastef fracture into an wing loyal to Diomaye Faye and another aligned with Ousmane Sonko, there is no guarantee that the head of state would emerge victorious. Many party officials, elected representatives, and activists might be swayed to follow the one they still consider the movement’s central figure. Bassirou Diomaye Faye currently lacks a sufficiently structured and autonomous political apparatus to counterbalance the influence of his former mentor. This represents his primary vulnerability.

The challenge of political succession

The inherent struggle for many political successors is their eventual desire to forge their own path. This is a natural human inclination. No president can long accept being perceived as a mere figurehead, devoid of genuine authority.

Beyond the individuals involved, it is now the very coherence of Pastef’s political project that faces scrutiny. The movement was founded on a promise of profound change: virtuous governance, national sovereignty, social justice, and the restoration of national dignity. However, ego-driven conflicts often possess the destructive capacity to divert political movements from their initial mission.

Perhaps the greatest irony in this unfolding situation is that Pastef’s adversaries may ultimately benefit from a crisis they did not even need to instigate themselves.