The Donald Trump administration is actively evaluating the potential for launching targeted airstrikes against the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda affiliate operating in Mali. This strategic consideration comes as the security landscape across the Sahel continues to deteriorate, and Malian forces, bolstered by Russia’s Africa Corps, struggle to regain a lasting advantage against persistent armed groups.

Washington explores intervention against JNIM

The United States may soon re-engage its military assets in Mali. Reports, citing multiple current and former American officials, indicate that the Trump administration is weighing the authorization of strikes against JNIM, a formidable Al-Qaeda-linked organization that has emerged as a dominant jihadist force in the Sahel region.

However, the proposed intervention has sparked internal debate within the American government. High-ranking officials are reportedly divided on the wisdom of such military action. Sebastian Gorka, a senior director for counterterrorism on the National Security Council, stands out as a prominent advocate for military engagement.

When questioned about these developments, an American official neither confirmed nor denied the possibility of airstrikes. Nevertheless, the official emphasized Washington’s ongoing efforts to encourage North African and West African governments to procure American military equipment and services, thereby strengthening their capabilities in combating terrorist organizations.

The same official characterized terrorism in the Sahel as a “multinational problem,” urging regional partners and NATO allies to provide support to the Alliance of Sahel States in its fight against JNIM and the Islamic State. The official further asserted that “the responsibility for the worsening security situation rests with Russia,” deeming Moscow an “ineffective security partner for Mali.”

The Pentagon declined to comment on the matter. The State Department confined its remarks to an unequivocal condemnation of “terrorist activities in Mali.” Since 2018, Washington has officially designated JNIM as a foreign terrorist organization.

Africa Corps faces deteriorating security situation

This American deliberation occurs amidst a continuously worsening military landscape in Mali. In recent months, JNIM has escalated its offensives against Malian forces, at times coordinating operations with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA). An alliance between these groups in April led to one of the most significant assaults against Malian authorities in years, resulting in the loss of several strategic positions in the country’s northern territories.

In response to this challenging environment, the Africa Corps, a entity overseen by the Russian Ministry of Defense and the official successor to the Wagner Group in Mali, has recalibrated its operational strategy. According to an analysis published by Africa Defense Forum, Russian forces are now primarily concentrating their resources on safeguarding Bamako, critical infrastructure, and Malian authorities, while concurrently reducing their permanent presence in certain northern areas of the country.

This strategic shift follows a series of military setbacks experienced by Malian forces and their Russian partners against JNIM and the FLA. Several independent assessments suggest that the stated objectives of the strengthened security partnership between Bamako and Moscow have yet to be realized, despite substantial resources being deployed.

Compounding these operational difficulties, accusations of abuses targeting Malian soldiers and Africa Corps personnel continue to be reported by various international media outlets and human rights organizations. Reports in June, for instance, detailed accounts of violence against civilians in the Tombouctou region. Malian authorities have not issued any comments regarding these allegations.

A potential American intervention would signify a notable shift in Washington’s strategy for the Sahel. Following the gradual withdrawal of Western forces from several countries in the region and Mali’s deepening ties with Russia, the United States now appears to be contemplating a more direct role in the fight against jihadist groups. As of now, no definitive decision has been made, and discussions within the Trump administration are ongoing.