The return of silence to Niamey’s streets should not deceive anyone. The battle is over, but the political war is only just beginning.

During the night of 28 to 29 August, Nigerien soldiers attempted to overthrow the regime of General Abdourahamane Tiani. The assault, which notably involved troops from units engaged on the country’s various fronts, targeted strategic installations in the capital, including Air Base 101 and areas close to the presidential palace. For several hours, power hung in the balance.

To save his regime, Tiani had to call on his Russian allies. The Africa Corps, successors to the Wagner Group in Africa, intervened alongside loyalist Nigerien forces. They took part in retaking the air base and neutralising the mutinous soldiers. The Nigerien army regained control of the base with the support of Russian paramilitary forces, as confirmed by official communications.

This is the major political fact of the crisis: Nigerien soldiers were fought on Nigerien territory with the direct support of Russian forces deployed to protect a regime born of the 2023 coup. Yet the junta had made national sovereignty its main argument for driving out French and American forces.

Sovereignty with double standards

For years, Tiani and his supporters told Nigeriens that the French military presence was a humiliation and an affront to national sovereignty. The French soldiers left. The Americans were asked to leave the country. Western military agreements were denounced. The regime’s propaganda could then proclaim that Niger had finally regained its full independence.

But an awkward question now arises: what is the point of driving out the French military if, a few years later, the authorities must call on Russian troops to save their presidential chair? The question is all the more explosive because the Russians did not intervene to defend Nigerien territory against jihadist groups. They intervened to help the regime repel Nigerien soldiers who threatened it.

The symbolism is devastating. Nigerien soldiers have been dying for years in the Sahel’s war zones. They fight Islamic State and JNIM, suffer heavy losses, and regularly denounce their combat conditions. The Niamey mutiny appears to have been fuelled precisely by this accumulated frustration within units facing daily jihadist violence. And when these same soldiers eventually turn against the regime, it is the Russians who come to fight them. What sovereignty remains when the national government can no longer ensure its own survival without foreign protection?

The growing rift between Tiani and his army

The 29 August mutiny is arguably the most serious warning sign addressed to Tiani since he came to power. The problem is not just that soldiers attempted to overthrow him, but that they were able to do so while Niger officially possesses a substantial security apparatus. Above all, the dissent appears to have found fertile ground within the ranks of the regular army itself.

Soldiers deployed on the front lines are the ones paying the heaviest price of this war. They see their comrades fall. They face material shortages. They witness jihadist attacks continuing despite the junta’s promises. Since 2023, Tiani vowed to restore security and return dignity to Niger. Three years later, jihadist violence remains a major threat, and Nigerien forces continue to suffer significant losses.

In this context, part of the army seems to be questioning whether the regime has drifted away from those who are actually fighting on the ground. The Russian intervention may have turned frustration into hatred. A Nigerien soldier can accept dying for his country, can endure privation and sacrifice in the name of the fatherland. But it will be far harder for him to accept foreigners shooting at him in order to protect a political regime.

Tiani: from Bazoum’s overthrower to Moscow’s protégé

The historical paradox is dizzying. In July 2023, Tiani seized power claiming he wanted to save Niger from a political system incapable of guaranteeing the security of its citizens. He overthrew Mohamed Bazoum, a democratically elected president, pretending to put an end to the failures of civilian rule. Today, three years later, it is his own power that needs foreign fighters to resist a military revolt.

The trajectory is impossible to ignore. Tiani came to power through a coup. He now remains in power thanks to a security apparatus whose essential component is Russian. In other words, the man who claimed to free Niger from foreign tutelage seems to have replaced a Western dependency with a Russian one. It is precisely this contradiction that could become the regime’s Achilles’ heel.

What if Bazoum had accepted French help?

Let us also look back at July 2023. At the time Tiani was overthrowing Mohamed Bazoum, France still had more than a thousand soldiers in Niger. Paris supported the elected president and, under certain circumstances, was considering an operation to contribute to his release. Some close to Bazoum had requested French intervention. According to reports at the time, an operation was being considered, but Bazoum ultimately preferred dialogue and refused to allow French forces to intervene directly.

That decision now belongs to history. But a question remains: if Bazoum had accepted French intervention, would Tiani have succeeded in his coup? No one can rewrite history with certainty. Yet it is perfectly legitimate to note that Tiani benefited from that hesitation. The elected president remained a prisoner in the presidential palace while the junta progressively consolidated its grip on the state apparatus. The most ironic part is that the very man who denounced the French presence in Niger now calls on a foreign power to save his own regime.

Algeria steps into the game

As if the Russian presence were not enough, Algeria has just taken a new step. After the attempted overthrow of Tiani, Algiers deployed military assets to Niamey, including combat and transport aircraft. This decision marks a significant shift in Algeria’s doctrine, long characterised by reluctance to commit its forces beyond its borders. Ultimately, Algeria did not have to engage the mutineers, as they had already been repelled with Russian help. But the message was clear: Tiani would no longer be alone.

Moscow protects the regime militarily. Algiers now provides strategic support. And the junta may present this encirclement as proof that Niger has gained new allies. But behind this show of force lurks a troubling question: how many foreign powers will it take to protect a government that seems to be progressively losing the support of part of its own army?

The volcano beneath the barracks

The 29 August mutiny may not be an isolated incident. It could be the first symptom of a far deeper rupture. The Russian weapons enabled Tiani to win one battle, but they did not address the frustrations of Nigerien soldiers, did not destroy the jihadist groups, did not bring back the soldiers who died on the front, did not reconcile the troops with the regime. They simply allowed the regime to survive its first attempted overthrow.

And that is precisely where the danger lies for Tiani. A regime can control a palace with the help of foreign forces. It can retake a military base. It can arrest mutineers. But it cannot indefinitely govern against an army that is beginning to consider its own power dependent on a foreign nation. General Tiani should therefore look beyond the walls of his palace. The real threat to his regime may lie neither in Paris, nor Washington, nor any of the Western capitals he regularly accuses of plotting against him. It could be right there, in Nigerien barracks.

If the soldiers who saw their comrades fall under foreign bullets ever decide to settle accounts with those they accuse of handing their country over to Moscow, the next mutiny could prove far more difficult to contain. The Russians can protect Tiani, and Algeria can offer support, but no foreign power can forever replace the loyalty of a national army. Tiani’s regime may have won the battle of 29 August, but it may have lost something far more precious: the trust of those who wear the Nigerien uniform.